Diagnosis of Transition Processes in the Ocean-Atmosphere System

Abstract

Transition processes between different situations in the "ocean-atmosphere" system are studied by means of the methods of sequential analysis. Instability indicator is introduced to be used as the generalized characteristics of the state for this system. The indicator is evaluated based on the data obtained from the TAO/TRITON-PIRATA system of anchored buys and other meteorological stations located in tropical zone of the World Ocean. It is shown that the combination of sequential and cluster analysis with the percolation model allows the detection of tropical hurricane 1-2 days in advance of its initiation.